MLB Business Proposition: White Sox Boost Outfield With Adam Duvall

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This will be the fourth installment in my 2021 mid-season series of articles setting out the framework for Marlins’ trade that could hypothetically happen. at present. These last two words are essential, because my ideas tend to age very quickly, but I swear to you, they made sense at the time!

With the Marlins’ 2021 playoff aspirations rapidly receding, there is a need to consider deals centered on veteran players who are currently at the peak of their powers – they make a lot more sense on a team roster. in contention than they do for the fish.

Let’s find a new home for the Miami home run leader:

The Chicago White Sox trade C Zack Collins to the Miami Marlins for OF Adam Duvall, C Sandy León and RHP Colton Hock.


THE MARLINS ARE …

Zack Collins, a native of South Florida, was the White Sox’s first draft pick (10th overall) five years ago. Almost three years to the day of his signing, he arrived at The Show.

Baseball America was bullish on Collins during his development in the minor leagues, ranking him 56th among all MLB prospects entering the 2017 season:

While Collins’ calling card will always be his offense, his defensive progress has been exceptional in his first year, and he particularly impressed the evaluators with his gentle hands and framing technique. His footwork is what keeps him from being an average defender. Collins has a thick, muscle-filled bottom half and is not nimble. No matter what type of defensive player he becomes, his offense will play. He has a rare combination of strength and bat speed, which gives him more power.

As a minor league, Collins cut to .244 / .385 / .455 with 59 homers in 362 MiLB games (134 wRC +). He was younger than the average age of his competitors every step of the way. On the other side of the ball, however, opponents frequently tested his throwing ability and he was tasked with passing balls about once a week.

Although he is still only 26 years old, Collins’ early career in the major leagues has dramatically reduced his market value. FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference both come close to its contributions so far at a slightly lower level than the replacement level (71 games played). He’s struck out in a third of his home plate appearances and hasn’t scored since May 7. The baseline runners are 23 for 26 on stolen goal attempts and he’s struggling with field framing as well.

To call Collins a “salvage project” would be hyperbole, but he could apparently use a change of scenery. He’s unable to get regular playing time on a win-now Sox team (44-30 record after Wednesday’s win).

Collins’ potential adjustment to the Marlins is much smoother. As a left-handed hitter, he could form a near-squad with Jorge Alfaro, facing right-handed starts in his starts against whom he has a respectable 94 wRC + career. With Alfaro getting the majority of playing time as receiver, Collins would still have the opportunity to make an impact as a pinched hitter. Even if Collins continues to be a defensive liability, the Marlins could enter 2022 with him in the mix for Designated Hitter Reps (fingers crossed that MLB and the Players Union implement Universal DH in the framework of the new collective agreement).

Collins has a remaining minor league option. He started 2021 with less than a year of MLB service, so his opportunity to test free agency will not present itself until after the 2026 campaign (at the earliest).


THE WHITE SOX GET …

Bally Sports Florida

Adam Duvall has had a strange and entertaining half-season for the Marlins. Heading into Wednesday’s game, he beats .212 / .259 / .460 (98 wRC +) with a team record of 16 HR and a 52 RBI in the National League. He has shown he can handle the tasks in the middle of the field in an emergency during Starling Marte’s absence, and in right field the 32-year-old has been surprisingly spectacular (especially with his arm).

Chicago’s outfield continues to be ravaged by injury – Eloy Jiménez, Luis Robert, Adam Eaton, Adam Engel and Billy Hamilton are all on the IL. Luis González, one of the few active major leaguers I’ve never heard of, started left for them on Wednesday. You might be surprised to read that the Sox are second to last in the American League with 71 total homers, just three more than the Marlins!

For what it’s worth, Duvall watched totally at ease in the Windy City Last weekend.

Duvall earns an easily digestible $ 2 million salary this season, although he has a $ 7 million mutual option for 2022. He has guaranteed a $ 3 million buyout if the club declines its share.

In León, Chicago land a conventional backup receiver who brings substantial playoff experience. This is a family-friendly site, so I won’t be releasing its success stats in 2021 – needless to say it’s gone. wrong. Defensive production hasn’t been much better, but León’s track record makes it reasonable to bet he’s an improvement over Collins in this department.

Right-hander Colton Hock, a 2017 rookie, is in the midst of a great season as the closest Double-A Pensacola. He has an ERA of 1.27 and 2.50 in 21.1 IP while allowing less than one baserunner per round. His 10 saves are tied for second in Minor League Baseball.

That being said, the sheer stuff of the 25-year-old isn’t overwhelming and the current front office doesn’t have any personal investment in him. Considering all the other young pitching talents in the organization, it’s hard to imagine the Marlins adding Hock to their 40-man roster, so they stand to lose him in this winter’s Rule 5 draft. You might as well throw it in this package to balance the equation.


Baseball Trade Values ​​sees this as a fair deal, but as a sweetener I could imagine the Marlins including money by continuing to pay León’s salary (prorated $ 1.25 million) while that the White Sox take responsibility for the Collins League minimum compensation.

Baseball Business Values

Baseball Business Values

What do you think?

Survey

Marlins get Zack Collins. The White Sox get Adam Duvall, Sandy León and Colton Hock. Fair trade?

  • 18%
    Yes, good deal!

    (4 voices)

  • 68%
    Marlins say no

    (15 voices)

  • 13%
    The White Sox say no

    (3 voices)

  • 0%
    Both teams say no

    (0 votes)


22 votes in total

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